He Kept Us Out of the War!

A colleague of mine was shocked that Woodrow Wilson barely won re-election in 1916. Wilson had accomplished a lot as president. He regulated the economy for the first time, went after trusts, passed pro-labor legislation and kept America out of World War I. On the other hand, he got America bogged down in Mexico chasing Pancho Villa. Wilson's first term was very similar to George W. Bush's first term. Bush also got a lot done and passed several bits of progressive legislation. Instead of Mexico, he got the U.S. bogged down in Iraq. Like Bush in 2004, Wilson easily won his party's nomination in 1916. Like 2004, the election came down to a single state.
While the Democrats were united behind Wilson, the GOP had 22 candidates to choose from. The party bosses controlled the nomination process and quickly eliminated conservatives, progressives, and two former presidents. They decided on Charles Evans Hughes. Hughes was a moderate and a member of the Supreme Court. As a result, he had not spoken on any issue since joining the court in 1910. Unlike Wilson, he was a blank slate.
After Theodore Roosevelt failed to gain the Republican nomination, the Progressive Party nominated him for president. He declined and endorsed Hughes. As a result, the Bull Moose Party died. Its members rejoined the GOP. Roosevelt was obsessed with defeating Wilson and did not want to split the vote again. The world was at war and there was too much at stake. Roosevelt did not trust Wilson to do the right thing.
The main campaign issue was World War I. Wilson's slogan "He Kept Us Out of the War" was designed to reassure voters America would not end up in the European meat grinder. When the Titanic's sister ship, Lusitania, was sunk by German U-Boats, Wilson refused to enter the war. He said America was "too proud to fight." To some, this reeked of cowardice, but it played into Wilson's campaign theme.
The Democrats claimed Hughes planned on entering World War I if elected. Hughes denied it. Ironically, this was Wilson's plan. Hughes attacked Wilson's pro-labor record which did not help him. He also attacked Wilson's military campaign in Mexico. This also failed. The only thing that seemed to help Hughes was Theodore Roosevelt's campaigning for him.
On election night, Wilson went to bed believing he had lost (similar to 2004 when exit polls showed Kerry won). Wilson decided to wait to concede. The next day, California came in for Wilson. Like 2004, the election came down to a single state (Ohio in 2004). Wilson was re-elected and would soon take America into World War I.
Wilson's second term saw a crackdown on civil liberties, war in Europe, an attempt to democratize the world, and a failed crusade to create a league of nations. Wilson was reviled when he left office. Hughes would return to the Supreme Court in the 1920s. Theodore Roosevelt would be the front runner for the Republican nomination in 1920 until his death in 1919.