In 1991, Saddam promised to leave Iraq open to inspectors. Failure to comply opened the door to further military action on the part of the coalition. Saddam kicked out the inspectors. This led a post-911 paranoia in the American Administration. Saddam must have something to hide. All the major intelligence agencies believed he had WMD. The US pushed for an invasion. There had been nearly 20 UN resolutions, a Clinton-era statement that regime change in Iraq was the goal of the US government, a force authorization from Congress, and the 1991 cease fire agreement. Despite protestations of the left, the war was legal.
Many have accused Bush of lying about WMD to justify the war. The big lie was not about WMD, but that Bush lied. Everyone believed Saddam had WMD. Saddam himself said he was planning on restarting his nuclear program and nuclear materials were taken out of Iraq in 2008. There was no lie on Bush's part. However, the administration did juice up the information. Also, they gave a half dozen reasons to go to war. One of which was WMD.
Whatever the reason for war, the initial invasion resulted in a quick defeat for the Iraqi army. The US blitzkrieg known as "Shock and Awe" ended the conventional war in record time. Bush would declare victory on an aircraft carrier under a banner titled "Mission Accomplished." It was only the end of the first round in Iraq and Bush later admitted the banner and victory declaration was a mistake.
The success of the invasion led to the fall of the Hussein government and celebrations throughout Iraq. Uday and Qusay Hussein died in a shootout with American troops. Saddam was captured in his "spider hole." The crimes of the Hussein regime were brought to light. Iraq had been liberated. The US did not know what to do next. Then, an insurgency began.
In 2004, a pesky insurgency expanded. The Bush Administration did not have a plan to deal with this contingency. They went to war with too few troops for occupation duties. They sent the Iraqi Army home. The dismissed Iraqi army could have been used to maintain the peace. Instead, their weapons went to the insurgents.
By 2006, the insurgency had grown into a major problem for Bush. The insurgent leader, Al-Zarqawi, was killed, but the insurgency breathed still. Despite his death and Saddam's execution at the end of '06, the Bush Administration showed no vision for victory in Iraq. In November, the Democrats retook congress due to GOP scandals. Bush had to act.
In 2007, Bush ordered a surge. Democrats declared it a failure immediately. However, it succeeded. As of today, Iraq is safer than before the surge. The future of the conflict will soon be in Obama's hands. Bush has helped setup a Democratic Iraq. If that becomes a stable democracy, then his legacy improves dramatically.
The fact Bush attempted to "nation build" and "spread democracy" to the Middle East is another paradox. During the 2000 campaign, he attacked Clinton-era nation building. These types of policies usually come from the left. Bush resembles Woodrow Wilson. Many Bush speeches during this period sound like they were written by Wilson during World War I. Wilson wanted ethnic determination and to spread democracy to end the chances of another global conflict. Bush has proposed similar policies. If you like Wilson, you should love Bush!
What is the Bush legacy in Iraq? That is to be determined. One lesson reiterated by this war is the country can not wage war with too few troops. Despite the initial success, boots were needed to maintain order. Iraq is now a fledgling Democracy and that is a positive step. However, the future is unwritten and Iraq's future is still clouded.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
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