Presidential Legacies: The Post Cold War Executives 1989-2009

The world remained full of challenges after the Soviet Union fell. The Balkans exploded in a fury of ethnic cleansing. China and India were joining the ranks of industrial nations. The Middle East was an even more dangerous place as Islamic nations sought nuclear weapons and harbored terrorists. Additionally, the world's economy destabilized and de-industrialized. Technological advances changed communications, journalism, commerce, warfare, and everything else. The greatest challenges for American presidents during this period turned out to be the Middle East, the changing economy, and themselves.

George H.W. Bush was not the first president to have to deal with the Middle East. Jefferson had to fight a war there in the early nineteenth century. Like Jefferson, Bush led America to war against a lawless force. Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. This violated the post-war international consensus against offensive wars of conquest. President Bush went to the United Nations and garnered support to remove Iraq. Despite diplomatic initiatives, Saddam Hussein dragged his feet and dug in. The American-led coalition launched an air campaign lasting four weeks. Then, ground forces routed Iraq in 100 hours. It was a dramatic victory. Shell-shocked Iraqi soldiers surrendered to news crews. Today, most view the war as necessary to stop aggression. Hussein invaded Kuwait, threatened Saudi Arabia, and had to be removed. If the world allowed the conquest to stand, others might decide to launch offensive wars. Historically, the Gulf War and Korean War are the only instances where the United Nations stopped aggression. Bush’s approval rating hit 91%.

Bush’s popularity peaked too soon. A mild economic downturn and a third party candidate doomed the Bush Administration. Bill Clinton came out of nowhere to win the presidency. The Clinton Administration faced a new enemy born out of the Gulf War. El Queda began launching attacks against American interests. At first, Clinton treated it as a law enforcement issue. Eventually, he launched missile attacks on suspected El Queda bases (and an aspirin factory). However, by that point, he was mired in scandal.

The Clinton Administration was the most scandal-ridden in history. The biggest scandal led to his impeachment. At first, an independent counsel investigated a land deal in Arkansas. The attorney general expanded the independent prosecutor's mandate to include a wide range of improprieties. Eventually, those improprieties led to Monica Lewinsky. Clinton could have escaped had he admitted the affair immediately and apologized. Instead, he lied under oath. The cover up led to his impeachment. The House of Representatives voted to impeach Clinton on the charges of perjury and obstruction of justice. Two other charges, abuse of power and perjury in a civil case, failed to pass the House. Clinton was tried in the Senate in 1999 and escape conviction and removal. However, the United States was rudderless for about a year as Clinton fought the charges. Had the president admitted the affair earlier or resigned, the country would have been better off. Instead, the battle polarized the country and allowed El Queda time to prepare for attacks on the USS Cole and 911.

Clinton’s peccadilloes severely damaged the Gore campaign. Gore did not know whether to use Clinton or to run and hide from him. The indecision doomed the campaign. Gore lost to George W. Bush. The country entered a recession in 2000 and Bush was determined to combat it. He cut taxes and then came the 911 attacks. El Queda and Osama bin Laden slaughtered 3000 people as airplanes leveled the World Trade Center in New York, struck the Pentagon, and crashed in Pennsylvania. Bush’s response to the crisis was widely lauded. His address to congress following the attacks echoed Roosevelt’s Pearl Harbor speech and his visit to Ground Zero with the bullhorn just about ensured re-election.

After a brief buildup, American forces moved into Afghanistan to battle the Taliban and El Queda. The Americans secured a temporary victory in short order. Unfortunately, Osama bin Laden escaped. Then, began to dawdle unsure what to do next. American policy in Afghanistan remains unclear to this day. Meanwhile, the Administration began focusing its attention on Iraq.

While waging war in Afghanistan, the Bush Administration prepared for another conflict. Since Saddam Hussein failed to live up to the Gulf War cease fire, the United States had the legal right to re-engage. The administration used several arguments for war including the spread of democracy and stopping the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The greatest firestorm since Vietnam ensued. At this point, war could have been avoided had Hussein allowed weapons inspectors back into the country. He didn’t and Bush launched the Second Gulf War. Hussein was later captured and executed. No weapons were ever found despite Saddam’s past use. Hussein later admitted plans to continue a program once the heat was off.

After the invasion, Bush declared victory. However, an insurrection broke out. American policy failed to confront the insurgents. The military did not have enough boots on the ground and the American government dissolved the only entity that could have helped, the Iraqi military. The war grew increasingly unpopular. Bush remained stubborn and patiently waited for victory. Finally, in 2007, Bush launched the surge. This, combined with diplomatic initiatives, defeated the radicals. As his term expired, Bush announced American troop withdraws.

Before Bush left office, the economy collapsed. A decade old government plan required banks to lend money to low income borrowers. Congress blocked reform attempts earlier in the decade. One senator opposing those reforms was Barack Obama. Ironically, Obama’s opposition to reforms that could have stopped the meltdown, helped his election in 2008.

Upon taking office, Obama began the greatest spending spree in history. The Bush Administration and Republican Congress had created massive deficits as a result of two wars, the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit, and insane spending. Upon assuming office, Obama turned into Bush on steroids. Instead of being pragmatic and dealing with the economy and two wars, he has been a blind ideologue. The Obama stimulus plan failed to fix the economy and cost $700 billion. He plans more spending while the dollar collapses. Unless some fiscal sanity overcomes Obama and/or the Pelosi Congress, then the Misery Index (hyperinflation and double digit unemployment) will be the result. One influential economist compared Obama’s economic policy to that of Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe. However, Obama’s Administration is just beginning and perhaps reality and common sense may strike before he can turn the U.S. into a third world country.

It is harder to discern a legacy for recent presidents. Sometimes, things ignored now become important later. For example, Clinton Administration rules forcing banks to lend to borrowers unable to repay loans led to a worldwide economic collapse. While he was in office, people celebrated Clinton's economic brilliance. Now, he is often cited as one cause of the economic collapse. In Obama’s case, he has not been in office a year yet, so he has a very limited body of work. This last grouping of presidents also provide an interesting psychological study. Clinton's inability to tell the truth and predilection for women, Bush's stubbornness, and Obama's blind adherence to a failed ideology handicapped these three chief executives. With that in mind, each president in this group dealt with the Middle East, the ups and downs of a changing economy, and with the possible exception of Bush 41, their own personality failings.